Sunday, November 25, 2007

TeaParty07 Predictions

Some thoughts on the upcoming "Ron Paul Tea Party" (December 16th):

-Already over 20,000 subscribers (11/25).

-It'll be interesting to see whether it's going to keep losing steam (decelerating) as it is doing now, or whether there'll be a spike or at least an acceleration upwards in the days leading up to the deadline.

-Since Ron Paul supporters haven't disappointed me yet, I'm going to throw my weight behind the idea that we'll see a pretty strong upward trend as it gets close to detonation time. The campaign is putting a bit of a damper on things, however, with its plea for IMMEDIATE donations and its warnings that we cannot "afford to wait for bursts of press activity.

-I think people will donate now, to please Mr. Money Bydlak at the campaign, and they will still donate again come money bomb time. I feel like the supporters still have a lot left in them. This fight is not nearly over.

-As for the numbers: If we see some sexy polling numbers in the next 2 weeks (like a 10% in N.H., 10% Nevada, and maybe a few 7% national poll results), I think people will money bomb the HELL out of December 16th to a level that will blow people's minds. Like, maybe the graph will show something exciting like 35,000 subscribers, but the event itself will drop an even more boggling 7 MIL into the campaign's coffers. Optimistic? Sure. But realistic, considering how passionate supporters are.

-The snowball is accelerating down the mountain. The question is: "can we fix global warming so that it won't melt before it gets to the bottom?"

Monday, November 05, 2007

On being a "Ron Paul Shill", the 5th of November, and more

As I watch Ron Paul's fundraising ticker go through the roof today, the 5th of November, I'm searching for the media's reaction. Here's one article (from the National Ledger) that I felt inclined to vocally disagree with, being the Ron Paul Shill (or SpamBot, take your pick) that I am.

Ron Paul: Cash is King, On Pace for a $2M Day, But Will it Matter?

Here's what I wrote to Mr. Jackson, the article's author:

I would disagree with you that he's bad on television and in speeches. I would certainly agree with you that in general we've grown used to Obama-rhetoric as the model of what it means to be a good speech giver. But "audacity of hope" is nice, but boy is it unspecific. Have you watched the democratic debates? Have you heard Hillary attempt to give answers that will alienate her from no one? Would you call those "good answers?" Is she "good on TV?" The "rabid" and "wild-eyed" supporters that WE are, we actually prefer simple talk." Simple talk with a dose of historical awareness, two tablespoons of directness, a pinch of politeness, and a generous heapful of courage. That's all Ron Paul provides, and for many people, it's the best thing they see.

The author also believes that Ron Paul "won't crack 2.4 million" by the end of today. Hah. The mediaman has just become the Ron Paul fundraising analyst. Sir, I think I'm a bigger Ron Paul stat whore that you, so leave the projections to me. :-P It's currently 1:46 PM, and the day's total from 00:00 (midnight, 11/5) is above $2033K. We're 14 hours into this bomb raid, boys. Typically, Ron's donations pick up in the afternoon hours, all the way until 7 or 8 PM at least.

A lot of the RP SpamBots excitedly dropped their payloads last night at midnight, so we probably won't see the same proportional acceleration towards the evening, but it's going to move along at a healthy pace. I'm guessing, by 12:00 AM tonight CST there will be 3.5 to 4.0 mil. Which would easily be the biggest one day fundraising total for the primary cycle.